Why there is no toxic's law
Posted by toxic — Nov 23, 14:04 NZST
Bob Metcalfe has one that's been in the news again lately. So does Mike Godwin. Voidmstr's is one of my favorites. There's an unattributed one about arguing on the internet that became an instant classic. And Gordon Moore's
has held true for longer than the ARPAnet has existed. The commercial
Internet has been vital to my livelihood for nearly 15 years, and
somehow, I've escaped the burden of having a law attributed to me.
This
is a good thing. If there were a toxic's law, it would be about what
happens when you use a small portion of someone's blatantly obvious
statement to justify your own belief in your own hype, while summarily
ignoring the context of their statement, the external facts that
surround it, and the obvious dangers posed by believing your own hype.
And inevitably, it would get reflexively used out of context to help justify someone's hype.
But I digress...
Someone
who will remain nameless is in the process of building yet another
social networking service. It will allow you to stalk your friends'
friends, post pictures of ceiling cat, and leave messages that say
little more than "OMFG, U l00k sooooo hot in your pix. LOL! Can I b ur
friend". It will neither make, nor save users any money. It may get
some of them laid, and the visionary behind the product once told me
that he'd like to see it read email (OMG! JWZ's Laws!).
This morning, he sent me a link to this article
from the Economist, penned by Eric Schmidt (formerly of Sun, now of
Google). Go ahead and read or skim it (it'll open in a new window).
I'll wait.
OK, so now you know that it's telling you not to bet
against the Internet, because there's lots of new technology that's yet
to be developed, and virtually everything that is on the cutting edge
today is disruptive to traditional business. VoIP is a serious threat
to telecommunication monopolies, and lots of people have their targets
set on the Cable TV industry. Why? Because the Internet is based on
simple, open standards, and that fosters competition that forces
products to improve faster and get cheaper, or get left behind when a
competitor steps in and builds something better, taking your users.
Attempting to control your consumers or create what used to be known as
"Vendor Lock-In" will always backfire on you (are you listening,
Apple?). The telephone and cable companies success is due to the
inherent vendor lock in provided by their business models -- your
choice of traditional cable and telephone companies are dictated by
what zip code you live in.
So... what did this visionary of the
next generation of social network take away from this article? The last
two paragraphs. Go ahead and read them. The
lesson is compelling: put simple, intuitive technology in the hands of
users and they will create content and share it. The fastest-growing
parts of the internet all involve direct human interaction.
Imagine
that! The fastest growing portion on the world's global communications
network is the portion that involves communication. And this is why the
Internet needs another social networking site.
So. What are we ignoring here:
1.
Google's primary foray into allowing users to create content is
Blogger.com (which is also blogspot). Depending on whose numbers you
trust, between 10,000 and 70,000 new blogger pages get created every
day. Unfortunately, most of these pages are what's known as a splog,
or spam-blog. Give the users easy tools to create content, and people
will use them to game the search engines, and try to sell you blue
pills. Google, of course, is responsible for AdWords, the largest
advertising network on the Internet. Many of these splogs are used to
create and raise the ranks of ad farms.
Ad Farms are useless to the Internet community, but they generate
revenue for both the owner of the farm, and for the provider of the ads
(usually -- you guessed it -- Google). Google has no financial
incentive to keep the splogs off of Blogger (they make Google more
money than your pictures of James Traficant's implausible toupee).
If you've been on MySpace lately, you'll notice the same thing
happening there. While it once was "a place for friends" or "a place
where good friends and girls meet", it is now just "another place for
spam". Do you really want to be Burger King's friend?
This is the future of the Internet?
2.
What's the current #1 generator of traffic on the Internet? This may be
a surprise to some readers who insist that Alexa is a reliable measure
of popularity, but it's BitTorrent. Numbers vary (Mary Meeker claims it
to be as high as 60%, companies selling appliances designed to help
ISPs throttle it are claiming closer to 30%), but virtually everyone
who actually runs a network seems to agree that it's overtaken email as
being responsible for the most bits flying around on the wires today.
(As an aside -- ISPs are purchasing infrastructure to throttle torrent traffic (while still marketing "unlimited" connections), but they can't seem to stop the russian botnets from drowning your email box in millions of stock market related spams? WTF?)
OK.
What is BitTorrent good for? Right... mass distribution of content.
Taking one thing, and putting it into the hands of as many people as
possible. This is something of the opposite of "Tools that allow
average people to create and share content". It's really a tool that
allows many people to consume the same slick media that is produced by
someone else (usually, this content is made up of movies and TV shows,
which are produced professionally (and which Hollywood fights
tooth-and-nail to try to keep consumers from distributing)). Sure,
there is legal content on BT, like Linux DVDs and freely distributable,
but still professional, shows like PBS's NerdTV. But that's the exception.
3. But what about YouTube? Yeah... what about it? For every person who watches an amateur vlogger, or the guy from the Monkey Chow Diaries, one thousand watch the professional actress who portrays lonelygirl15, and twenty thousand
watch clips that CBS repurposes from The Late Show. YouTube's success
is not about the ease of content creation (though to justify the
rampant copyright violation going on there, YouTube has to claim that
it is). It's about the ease and inexpense of content distribution.
Most of the content that's distributed is still professionally
produced. YouTube and JumpCut didn't equalize video creation any more
than Podcasts obsoleted radio. it just made it easier for viewers to
find stuff that they want to watch. But that's not what people are
using YouTube's success to justify. There's a big difference here.
Smart
investors aren't going to bet against the Internet, because it's still
disruptive, and it's still evolving. Savvy BitTorrent users have
already created their own video-on-demand services, despite the cable
companies' many attempts to build such a beast. VoIP allows me to have
a US phone number here, completely bypassing the truly awful Telecom
monopoly in New Zealand (not to mention, I can call just about anywhere
in the world for a few cents per minute). We're just starting to see
forays into realtime IPTV, which might someday beat out your Cable
company (even the NFL is hip to this, partnering with Yahoo to offer
people outside of the US the ability to pay to watch the TV broadcasts
of all the games via Internet).
Various pieces of hardware are
appearing that connect streaming and stored media of all types to your
existing home theater/stereo. I'm listening to WNYC on my stereo right
now, from halfway around the world, and later (if I wanted to violate
US law and receive it via BitTorrent) I could watch The Daily Show on
my TV, even though it's not shown in this hemisphere. And that's a lot
more compelling content than someone mumbling into a webcam or stoned talentless teenagers lip-syncing poorly
to songs from Avenue Q (without paying royalties). It is the
consumption of content that is driving the Internet, not the creation
of it.
When we were in Venezuela, NPR simulcasts were our
connection to the news of the world -- in stereo sound that's better
than most of the overly compressed stuff on the FM broadcast spectrum
today. This level of communication, even to underserved parts of the
globe, was unthinkable just a few years ago. It's a hell of a lot
easier to upgrade the software that distributes audio and video across
fiber optic lines than it is to upgrade the television satellite once
it's been in space for 10 years, or to fix your shortwave transmitter.
The internet companies know this. The media companies are trying to
pretend that it's false (and issuing lawsuits to people who prove them
wrong). Knowing that better/faster/cheaper technology tends to win in
the 21st century, it's no wonder that Google closed above $500 a share
today.
But are smart investors still betting on Social Networks?
Or is giving people the tools to create content for their friends just
a way to become the next Geocities.
Only time will tell.
[Full Disclosure: This year, I will be receiving a 1099 from both BitTorrent and the company building the new social network]
via http://innerslacker.com/